Central Asia-Afghanistan Security Nexus: Post-2014 Perspectives

With the approaching drawdown of U.S. forces from Afghanistan by 2014, Central Asian countries seem worried that Taliban will use this as momentum to launch a new offensive, threatening to re-destabilize the country and make it a safe haven for terrorism and extremism. It has repeatedly been stated by Central Asian leaders that re-destabilization of Afghanistan could bring about serious security implications for the region including spillover of violence, spread of extremism and increases in drug trafficking. The mobilization of extremist groups with links to Afghanistan and increase in trafficking is already being observed in Central Asia, and the situation will likely be exacerbated if Afghanistan collapses into anarchy and violence. The internal weaknesses of Central Asian countries make them increasingly vulnerable to the negative impacts of the situation in Afghanistan. The combined effects of the rise of violence in Afghanistan and internal weaknesses of Central Asian countries has the potential to leave the whole region extremely insecure vis-à-vis the possible deterioration of stability in Afghanistan after 2014.

Authors: Azad Garibov