Instability in Syria: Iran’s Domestic and Foreign Policy Concerns

The article examines instability in Syria in terms of Iran’s foreign and domestic policy challenges, arguing that if Assad falls, the replenishment of Hezbollah’s weapons will become much more difficult, threatening Hezbollah’s military stamina. From the Iranian perspective, what is certain is that this could seriously impede any plans which Iran has in terms of using Hezbollah as a second strike capability in case of an Israeli attack. Further, the author presents two lines of analysis: first, Bahsar Al Assad’s regime gave Iran political backing in Iraq against Saudi interests, but if Assad’s regime falls, the next Syrian government is much likelier to be pro-Saudi and quite possibly pro-American. Second, if Syria manages to overthrow Assad, should the economic deterioration in Iran continue unabated, Iranians can say: if the people of Syria could overthrow Assad, its possible for us to do the same with Khamenei’s regime.

Authors: Meir Javedanfar